Interesting evidence about predictions is covered in a book by Philip Tetlock entitled Expert Political Judgment: How good is it? The answer is directly relevant to business management, because fortunes are directly affected by political decisions (and indecisions). But the relevance is far broader, for all managers are governed by forecasts about the business environment, the industries in which they operate and the markets in which they sell.
The predictions most obviously rule the stock market, but they also govern all corporate functions, from unit budgets to capital allocation. Swelling streams of wealth flow from organisations to professional pundits, in Think Tanks, banks, consultancies, etc.
HOW EXPERT ARE EXPERTS?