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Which type of manager are you?
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Creative people can detect at an early stage the ‘smell’ of a new idea - this motivates them to pursue and develop that idea.
Interesting evidence about predictions is covered in a book by Philip Tetlock entitled Expert Political Judgment: How good is it? The answer is directly relevant to business management, because fortunes are directly affected by political decisions (and indecisions).
If the benefits of a new idea will start to come through in six years’ time, and the full benefits in 20 years, is that idea likely to be implemented?